A first-class certificate tells you someone passed. It does not tell you whether they can write a clear report, handle a difficult customer or finish work without supervision. Here is what the evidence says and how to hire better.

Last updated: 27 October 2026

Every recruiter in Nigeria has met both hires. One arrives with a strong degree, a polished CV and an impressive interview, then struggles to write a simple email or take initiative. The other has no first-class result and a patchy academic record, but has built projects, served real customers and learned fast. Both stories are common, and together they raise an uncomfortable question for employers who still use the degree as their first filter.

This guide looks at why the degree has become a weaker signal in Nigeria, what international research says about skills-based hiring, and how to build a process that tests for the work itself. It is written for recruiters, HR teams and business owners.

A Few Notes Before We Start

The argument here is that a degree does not guarantee a great employee. It is not that degrees are worthless. Many roles, such as medicine, law and engineering, legally require specific qualifications, and a degree often reflects years of real learning. We also found no national Nigerian study linking degree class to later job performance, so the Nigerian evidence below consists of employer-body statements, academic studies, press reporting and government announcements, not performance data. The term “unemployable” is also contested. A BusinessDay columnist, Dr Olufemi Ogunlowo, argues it does not mean job seekers lack intelligence or potential, and that employability is a shared responsibility. Finally, the strongest research on skills-based hiring is American.

Why the Degree Is a Weaker Signal in Nigeria

1. Volume

Nigerian institutions produce a large number of graduates. A report on youth unemployment, carried by AllAfrica, says about 1.7 million graduates leave universities and polytechnics each year, and the economy cannot absorb them all. When so many candidates hold the same qualification, the certificate stops separating strong candidates from weak ones, and employers need other evidence.

2. Employers report a skills gap

The Nigeria Employers’ Consultative Association said at a 2023 conference organised by the National Universities Commission that skills mismatch, poor soft skills, limited practical experience and weak industry-academia collaboration were major obstacles to graduates entering the workforce. In April 2026, NACCIMA told a TVET summit in Lagos that the gap between training and the job market was widening and that graduates often lacked industry-relevant, job-ready skills. A study published through the University of Johannesburg, Bridging the gap: Graduate self-perceptions vs. employer expectations of employability skills, examines the same mismatch in the Nigerian context. These are statements and perception studies, so treat them as consistent signals, not a measured national average.

Techpoint-style startup hiring is shifting too. Techeconomy’s 2026 outlook lists skills-based hiring as one of the job market shifts to watch, with employers prioritising demonstrable skills over degrees.

3. Credential fraud makes the paper less trustworthy

Fake and unrecognised certificates are a documented problem, though they involve a minority of graduates. The National Universities Commission has identified dozens of illegal institutions, and Times Higher Education reported that it closed 58 degree mills. Daily Trust reports that JAMB said in July 2024 it had uncovered 3,000 fake graduates with forged degrees, and that the federal government directed ministries, departments and agencies to enforce mandatory verification of staff academic credentials. In August 2024, Education Minister Tahir Mamman said NYSC data showed 21,684 corps members with certificates from the Benin Republic and 1,105 from Togo between 2019 and 2023. An AllAfrica opinion piece notes that some of these holders were easily mobilised for NYSC, which then conferred legitimacy on bogus credentials. The lesson for employers is not that most degrees are fake. It is that a certificate on its own is not proof of anything until you verify it and test the skills behind it.

4. The labels have been used crudely

For decades, many Nigerian employers, especially in the public service, treated Higher National Diploma holders differently from bachelor’s degree holders, even in the same role. In January 2026, Education Minister Tunji Alausa announced plans to scrap the HND and BSc dichotomy by empowering polytechnics to award degrees. The policy debate itself shows how much hiring has leaned on the name of a qualification, not on what the person can do.

What International Research Says

Dropping degree requirements on paper changes little

A joint study by Harvard Business School’s Managing the Future of Work project and the Burning Glass Institute looked at US employers that removed degree requirements between 2014 and 2023. It found that for all the fanfare, the increased opportunity had reached fewer than 1 in 700 hires, and that nearly all of the change came from 37 percent of the firms studied. According to HCA Magazine’s coverage, about 45 percent of firms made a change in name only. The lesson is that deleting a line from a job advert is not enough. Hiring managers need a different way to judge people.

When it is done properly, the results are good

The same research found that at the firms that genuinely changed their practice, non-degreed hires had a retention rate 10 percentage points higher than their degree-holding colleagues after two years. A Korn Ferry summary adds that these hires received an average salary increase of 25 percent. These are US results for roles that previously asked for degrees, so they are not a Nigerian forecast, but they show that skills-first hiring can work when it is taken seriously.

What actually predicts performance

The selection research points to methods that resemble the job. A 2022 reanalysis by Sackett, Zhang, Berry and Lievens, summarised in a Hudson whitepaper, gives structured interviews the highest validity of the methods examined at about 0.42, followed by job knowledge tests at 0.40, empirically keyed biodata at 0.38 and work samples at 0.33. Simply counting years of experience ranks low. Validity here means the correlation between a method and later performance, where 1 would be perfect and 0 would be no prediction, so no method is a guarantee. A summary of Sackett and colleagues’ 2023 follow-up also notes that work samples and job knowledge tests are often not suitable for entry-level roles, where skills are acquired through training. For graduate hiring in Nigeria, that points to structured interviews and short, simple tasks, plus a serious onboarding plan.

How to Hire for Proof, Not Paper

  1. Audit your requirements. For each role, ask whether a degree is legally or practically necessary. If not, write the skills and results you need instead. Our guides on The Worst “Entry-Level” Job Requirements We Have Ever Seen and Five Years of Experience in a Three-Year-Old Technology show how requirements go wrong.
  2. Verify credentials properly. Confirm the certificate with the issuing institution, check that the institution is accredited and consider a reputable background screening provider for senior or sensitive roles. We could not confirm whether private employers can use the government’s verification system, so ask the relevant authority. Verification tells you the paper is real, not that the person is good.
  3. Use structured interviews. Ask every candidate the same job-related questions and score the answers against a written scale. Train the people who interview, as we explain in Managers Should Be Trained Before Managing People.
  4. Add a short, relevant task. Give a 60 to 90 minute exercise that resembles the job, such as writing a customer reply, analysing a small dataset or planning a week of tasks. Do not turn it into free work, and keep to the limits we describe in Why Your Recruitment Process Is Chasing Away Top Talent.
  5. Test soft skills with evidence. NECA names poor soft skills as a barrier, so ask for specific examples of communication, teamwork and problem solving, and check references.
  6. Hire for trainability at entry level. Many graduates will need support, and employers who plan for that do better than those who hope for finished candidates. Build a 30, 60 and 90 day plan for every new hire.
  7. Treat qualifications fairly. Compare HND, BSc, OND, apprenticeship and self-taught candidates on the same scorecard, not on the name of the certificate.
  8. Use probation as part of the test. Set clear goals for the first months and review them honestly.
  9. Pay for what you ask. A skills-first process attracts people with options, and they will compare your offer, as we argue in If You Can’t Pay Fair Salaries, Don’t Hire.
  10. Track what predicts success in your company. After a year, compare performance with how each person was hired. Your own data will show which signals matter.

Do Not Overcorrect

Skills-first does not mean ignoring education. A degree can show sustained effort and foundational knowledge, and some roles require a licence by law. The goal is to treat it as one signal among several, not the only one. The Harvard and Burning Glass findings suggest the best employers combine clear skill criteria with a structured way of judging them.

What Recruiters Can Do

  • Challenge degree filters. Ask clients whether a degree is necessary or just habit.
  • Bring evidence to shortlists. Present candidates with work samples, structured interview scores and references, not only certificates.
  • Advise on verification. Tell clients how to confirm credentials and remind them that a real certificate is still not proof of skill.
  • Widen the pipeline. Look at polytechnic graduates, apprenticeship routes and self-taught candidates alongside university graduates. See building a pipeline from NYSC and university talent.
  • Improve the employer brand. Employers who hire on merit and develop people attract stronger candidates. See What Is Employer Branding, and Why Should a Nigerian SME Care?

Candidates can help themselves too. If you are building proof of skill without a perfect record, read How to Get Hired Without Applying and How Do I Write a CV With No Experience?

Frequently Asked Questions

Are degrees still necessary? For some roles, yes. Regulated professions require specific qualifications. For many others, a degree is a useful signal but not a guarantee of ability, so it should sit alongside evidence of skills.

Should we remove degree requirements from our adverts? Only if you also change how you judge candidates. The Harvard and Burning Glass research found that dropping the requirement without changing practice made little difference.

How do we verify a Nigerian degree? Contact the issuing institution, check that it is accredited and consider a reputable background screening provider. The federal government has also directed public bodies to verify staff credentials. We did not confirm whether private employers can use that system, so ask the relevant authority.

What about HND and OND holders? Judge them on the same skills and results as other candidates. The federal government announced in January 2026 that it plans to end the HND and BSc dichotomy, and employers who still treat the two differently are using the label, not the person.

How can we assess soft skills? Use structured questions about real situations, short exercises that involve communication, and reference checks. Score everyone on the same scale.

Will skills-first hiring let in unqualified people? Not if you test properly. A structured process with a job-related task is usually a stronger filter than a certificate alone.

The Bottom Line

In a market with 1.7 million graduates a year, employers who rely on the certificate alone are choosing from a pool they cannot tell apart. The better approach is to treat the degree as one signal, verify it, and then test for the skills the job needs through structured interviews, short tasks and honest onboarding. Nigerian employers who do this will find strong people that others overlook. When you are ready to hire, you can post a job on MyJobAlly and describe the skills and results you need.

This article draws on AllAfrica, Leadership, Ecofin Agency, BusinessDay, the University of Johannesburg, Techeconomy, Times Higher Education, Daily Trust, Peoples Gazette, Vanguard, Harvard Business School and the Burning Glass Institute, HCA Magazine, Fortune, Korn Ferry, Hudson and Master HR, current as of October 2026. Several sources are press reports, employer-body statements and summaries of research, and may use different methods. The skills-based hiring and selection research is mostly American and is not specific to Nigeria. We found no national Nigerian study linking degree class to job performance, and no confirmation of whether private employers can use the federal government’s verification system. Credential fraud affects a minority of graduates and should not be read as a judgement on Nigerian degrees generally. This article is general information, not HR or legal advice.